In recent days, various forecasts keep coming for the rise in the dollar rate, which is once again at the top of the agenda. Contrary to experts who offer astronomical figures for the dollar, the negative scenario that will occur in the exchange rate is also curious. The analysis of the last dollar in the Dünya newspaper attracted a lot of attention.
The experts, who assessed the course of the dollar for the Dünya newspaper, said that there was a resistance of 15 liras in the forecast for the dollar, “Next week, the support point of this trend coincides with the level of 15.07 TL. Additionally, it should be noted that the 15.73 TL level, which previously functioned as a resistance level, now functions as a support point. In other words, to speak of relief on the decline of the parity, it is first necessary to raise these levels. it has been said. In the analysis, which includes what will happen if the 15 lira level of the exchange rate is broken down,”“In particular, falling below the 15.07 TL level may cause the pair to pull back to the 13.27 TL level. This is actually the support point of the main trend which started on 06 September 2021. Also, staying above the 15.73 TL level in the negative scenario may lead to an upside risk up to 17 .07 TL levels in the first stage. statements have been included.
In the analysis made by Uğur Korcan, the following statements were used, noting that the government is dependent on tourism revenue:
Rising commodity prices overseas, a weak US Federal Reserve, the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, as well as weak belief that inflation will decline in an environment of negative real interest rates keep the demand for foreign currency alive. So how will blood pressure drop in exchange rates? The prevailing view is that expectations management should be conducted, which includes concrete measures that will ensure that the number of those who believe that inflation will fall into the “majority” is significant. This is the first item on the to-do list. In addition, the rise in world commodity prices, over which we have no power to intervene, must also stop. It is difficult to find a solution for the two most important positions in the short term. Therefore, the pressure on exchange rates is expected to continue for some time. So much so that while rating agency Moody’s raised year-end inflation expectations for 2022, which were estimated at 35%, to 52.1% in March, that figure rose to 57.92% in the Central Bank Expectations Survey. At this point, the only source of hope lies in tourism revenues, which are expected to increase over the coming summer months.